Morocco’s Victory on the Western Sahara

Almost invisibly to most Americans, Morocco has won an important victory in its long struggle to maintain and legitimize its sovereignty in the Western Sahara.

For most Americans, and even most foreign policy experts, the Western Sahara issue is arcane. But for Moroccans it is a great national cause. The territory, about 100,000 square miles in the northwest corner of Africa (along the Atlantic coast between Morocco and Mauritania), was colonized by Spain as the “Spanish Sahara” until 1976. When Spain withdrew, Mauritania, Morocco, and a guerrilla group called the Polisario Front—supported by Algeria—began their struggle over the Western Sahara. Mauritania soon withdrew from that fight, but Algeria remains very much in it. Styling itself a national liberation movement against Moroccan colonialism, the Polisario controls perhaps twenty percent of the Western Sahara but is based in and armed by Algeria. That its armed wing was called the Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army rightly suggests that the Polisario’s organization, political support, and mystique are reminiscent of the Cold War.

At times the cause of the Polisario seemed to be gaining: it had far-left backing and the support of various international stars, and supporting the Polisario was cool and progressive. But the meaning of United Nations Security Council resolution 2797, adopted last Friday, is that the Polisario has lost.

I became involved in this dispute in 2002, when I became the NSC’s Senior Director for the Near East and North Africa in the George W. Bush administration. I was a blank slate on this issue, and at that point the United Nations’ position was to force a referendum. The UN’s “special envoy” was James Baker, and the initial “Baker Plan” had called for autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. The Polisario rejected it, and Baker’s second plan called for a referendum in the territory after 5 years. 

The Polisario accepted this proposal but Morocco rejected it, and we in the Bush administration backed Morocco. We understood that the king, the government, and the people of Morocco could not countenance the possibility of losing the Western Sahara, and could therefore not agree to a referendum that offered that possibility.

We believed Baker had had it right in his first plan, for autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. We urged Morocco to put more flesh on the bones of that idea and to put forward an actual plan, which they did in 2007. We supported that plan, as did the Obama administration after us and all administrations since.

Slowly but surely it has become clear to countries around the globe that this is the right solution: autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, not the creation of a new failed state under the non-democratic rule of the Polisario backed by Algeria. The UN Security Council resolution offers “full support for the Secretary-General and his Personal Envoy in facilitating and conducting negotiations taking as basis Morocco’s Autonomy Proposal with a view to achieving a just, lasting and mutually acceptable resolution to the dispute, consistent with the UN Charter.” The vote was 11-0-3, with China, Russia, and Pakistan abstaining, no state opposing, and Algeria (a non-permanent Security Council member this year) not participating in the vote. The resolution says “genuine autonomy could represent a most feasible outcome” and urges Morocco and the Polisario to “engage in these discussions without preconditions, taking as basis Morocco’s Autonomy Proposal, with a view to achieving a final and mutually acceptable political solution that provides for the self-determination of the people of Western Sahara.” 

Morocco now has the important support of the United States, France, and Spain, as well as others around the world. Its autonomy proposal is now not one of many possible solutions, but as the French UN delegate put it, “Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the framework within which this issue must be resolved.” Le Monde’s headline was “Western Sahara: Morocco secures diplomatic victory at the UN.”

The struggle over the Western Sahara is not over, in large part because Algeria continues to reject the Security Council’s move toward autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty and will presumably continue its support for the Polisario—diplomatically, politically, financially, and perhaps militarily. For Algeria, this dispute over the Western Sahara is just a part of its hostile policy toward Morocco. Algeria broke diplomatic ties to Morocco in 2021 and in 2023 Algeria’s president said “We have practically reached the point of no return.” One of Morocco’s crimes, from the point of view of the Algerian regime, was its joining the Abraham Accords in 2020 and normalizing relations with Israel.

But this UN vote was indeed a victory for Morocco, and for those who seek a practical solution for the dispute over the Western Sahara. No doubt it was not headline news in Washington or most world capitals, but it is the product of Moroccan effort—both diplomatic effort and work on the ground in the Western Sahara—and good sense, and of sensible and bipartisan U.S. policy. If Algeria stops using this issue as a weapon against Morocco and instead urges the Polisario to negotiate in good faith, a solution that benefits Morocco, Algeria, and the people of the Western Sahara will find a path to peace. Autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty was the right answer when proposed a quarter-century ago, and remains so today.